There is an existential threat that chemical or biological weapons used in an act of war or as intrument of terror can eradicate all human life.
Filippa Lentzos on Emerging Threats in Biosecurity - Future of Life Institute
Research Areas - Future of Humanity Institute
The risk of use of biological or chemical weapons is difficult to quantify due to the complexity and variability of factors involved. However, several studies and reports provide some insights.
From 1990 to 2020, there were 565 unique events involving the use of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) weapons by violent non-state actors. Chemical weapons were used in 434 events, resulting in 965 fatalities and 7,540 injuries, while biological weapons were used in 123 events, causing 19 fatalities and 59 injuries[4].
The average number of chemical weapon attacks increased from 6 per year between 1970 and 2011 to 24.9 per year[2]. The most commonly utilized chemicals were chlorine (26.0%), tear gas (20.8%), and cyanide (15.6%)[2].
For biological weapons, a study from 2017 found that over the 85 years from 1915 to 2000, there were 18 cases of use (or possible use), which extrapolates to about a 20% chance per year of biowarfare[7]. However, this data is limited and the true rate of bioweapon attacks is highly uncertain[7].
It's important to note that the use of these weapons is not only a security concern but also a public health challenge. Biological agents like anthrax, botulinum toxin, and plague can cause large numbers of deaths in a short amount of time and can lead to epidemics[1]. Similarly, chemical weapons can cause significant morbidity and mortality[2].
In conclusion, while the exact risk is difficult to quantify, the use of biological and chemical weapons poses a significant threat to global security and public health. The increasing trend in the use of these weapons, particularly by non-state actors, underscores the importance of continued vigilance, preparedness, and efforts to prevent their proliferation.
Citations: [1] https://www.who.int/health-topics/biological-weapons [2] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7855324/ [3] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1200679/ [4] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10267718/ [5] https://carnegieendowment.org/files/BIO-survey-final-report.pdf [6] https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R42862/5 [7] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5576214/ [8] https://hhi.harvard.edu/publications/five-decades-global-chemical-terror-attacks-data-analysis-inform [9] https://www.dhs.gov/publication/biological-attack-fact-sheet [10] https://carnegieendowment.org/2001/01/18/introduction-to-chemical-and-biological-weapons-pub-630 [11] https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/biological-weapons-national-security-threat-and-public-health [12] https://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/prep_chemical_fact_sheet.pdf [13] https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2004/13 [14] https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2023-10/features/chemical-weapons-convention-stronger-you-think [15] https://rollcall.com/2022/09/19/biological-weapons-threat-evolving-experts-say/ [16] https://ourworldindata.org/biological-and-chemical-weapons